FORESIGHT: ESSENCE AND FORECASTING METHODOLOGY

Abstract

An effective and powerful tool for modeling the future at national and regional levels, for industries and large enterprises, is the foresight, which has become one of the main tools of the innovation economy. The term «foresight» now means the process of systematically identifying strategic scientific trends and technological advances that can, over time, have a significant impact on the economic and social development of the country.

The article identifies the difference between foresight and other tools for studying future development. The term "foresight" now means the process of systematically identifying strategic scientific trends and technological advances that can, over time, have a significant impact on the economic and social development of the country. This definition covers four components:

1) foresight is a continuous process;

2) the central place in it is occupied not by specific technologies but by scientific and technical directions;

3) the time horizon must exceed the business planning horizon;

4) the choice of priorities takes into account their impact on the socio-economic development of the country.

The difference between foresight and other tools for studying future development is identified: orientation to the use of specific measures; consideration of different alternatives for future enterprise development; interdisciplinary nature. It has been shown that when using the business site foresight there are a number of problems that were subsequently solved in foresight technology:

1) the object developers are dealing with is often undetermined and requires special study;

2) participation in the project allows a large number of different positions, the expert environment is very heterogeneous.

Based on the conducted research, the essence of foresight can be considered as a system of peer review methods, survey-based methodology, scenario prediction, systemic reflection, scenario prediction, modern methodology.

Expert assessments are the basis for evaluating future options. It is noted that in Ukraine the organization of the national technological prediction system should cover a number of measures.

The implementation of this methodology in our country will allow us to identify the technologies to which the maximum investment should be directed. Conducting a foresight will allow all structures to be interested in achieving the set goals. Forsyth will involve all stakeholders involved in the adoption and implementation of strategic decisions, will help to formulate different scenarios for future development and accordingly plan actions for the long-term perspective of enterprise development.